For many years it’s been clear demand is rising – and that trend has stayed consistent – but there has been a lot of change in where the supply is coming from. BP estimates that global energy demand is likely to grow by more than a third between now and 2030. According to the projections we make in our Energy Outlook 2030 publication, emerging economies such as China and India are likely to account for almost all that growth – over 90% of it.
Non-fossil energy – nuclear, hydro, biofuels and other renewables – will grow faster as a group than any fossil fuel. But they start from a very low base and will only provide, on a combined basis, about a fifth of all energy in 2030.
Gas will be the fastest growing fossil fuel at around 2% annually. It’s clean, cheap and increasingly available. Oil will grow more slowly, at less than 1%/yr. But that still means the world will need around 16 mm b/d more in 2030 than today. That increase alone is nearly the combined daily 2011 production of Russia, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates.
Thanks to new frontiers such as shale and the deepwater, our industry is now producing an enormous amount of previously unreachable oil and gas. At current consumption rates, the data suggests the world has 54 years’ worth of proved oil reserves and 64 years’ worth of proved gas reserves in place – and more will be found.
So we are working in a world with ever more diverse sources of supply – and diversity of course increases energy security by avoiding over dependence on any one source.
However, this diversity comes at a price. Many of the new supplies are in places that are hard-to-get at: shale oil and gas, tight oil and gas, heavy oil, the deepwater – and, in due course, the Arctic Circle.
And the physical and technological risks are not the only ones. Other factors range from fiscal regimes and other policy-related issues, to geo-political tensions and even the risk of terrorism.
We at BP were brutally reminded of that fact a few weeks ago, when four of our employees and colleagues from other companies were murdered in the terrorist attack on the In Amenas gas plant in Algeria.
Our thoughts are very much with the loved ones of those who died, from BP, Statoil, JGC, and other organizations. And our sincere gratitude goes to all who have offered support and sympathy. In particular, I would like to thank the Algerian Energy Minister, Youcef Yousfi. His personal involvement during the crisis was outstanding and greatly valued.
BP and Statoil staff, and the contracting companies, are incredibly resilient and committed people and we will go on. We will never forget, but we will go on with our mission of providing energy to the world. We have spent over 100 years producing energy in tough surroundings and we will not be deterred.
But the new opportunities bring new challenges, and we need constantly to develop our technology, capability and risk management.
Bob Dudley has been BP 's group chief executive since 2010. He previously served as CEO of TNK-BP from 2003-2008 and was later chosen to be an executive director at BP in 2009. He earned degrees in Chemical Engineering from the University of Illinois, and an MBA from Southern Methodist University.