Wood Mackenzie recently published a comparison of Wood Mackenzie’s Energy View to 2035, versus similar outlooks published by the International Energy Agency (IEA NP), BP, and ExxonMobil.
Some key points:
All forecasts expect energy demand growth through 2035 – however, growth rates and market size differ. Wood Mackenzie estimates growth rates between 1 and 1.5%, focused on emerging markets in Asia Pacific.
Gas displaces coal as the second largest fuel across all forecasts, except the IEA NP. Fuel demand growth is strongest during 2015-2025. All outlooks expect gas growth at around low to mid 3% from 2015-2025; post 2025, growth moderates materially — between 1 and 1.5% over 10 years due to slower economic growth and more efficient energy production, especially in the power sector.
BP has a higher view on China’s total energy demand by 2035 (see point 1, chart 1), which equals around a 28% share of total energy demand globally. The other outlooks agree that China’s demand profile is moderating long term, including WM EMS.
No consensus on which markets compensate for a slowdown in China. For example, BP is more conservative on the growth of markets ex-China (see point 2, chart 1, our Other Asia Pacific category), while XOM is the highest on Other Asia Pacific growth across all four outlooks.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
In India, Wood Mackenzie expects total primary energy demand to double over the next 20 years.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Outlooks broadly agree on which fuels will win or lose across Asia Pacific. Coal is static across all forecasts, backed out by gas, nuclear and renewables (see points 1-3, chart 2 in the chart above). Wood Mackenzie is highest on gas’ growth compared to other outlooks, and is close to BP and the IEA NP on the outlook for renewables.
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