The diplomatic route in Iran is now exhausted, as last night the United States and Israel attacked Iran, sharply escalating security risks for commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters, prompting immediate operational and insurance repercussions across the global maritime sector.
According to Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO, the attacks “dramatically increase the security risk to ships operating in the Persian Gulf and adjacent waters,” particularly for vessels with business ties to U.S. or Israeli interests.
Larsen cautioned that ships connected commercially to U.S. or Israeli entities are more likely to be targeted in any retaliatory action. However, he stressed that other vessels may also be at risk — whether deliberately or through misidentification.
Ships already operating in the region are expected to seek refuge in the territorial waters of neutral states, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Some may opt to exit the area entirely. Meanwhile, vessels en route to the immediate conflict zone are likely to delay entry until the security situation stabilizes.
“The initial reaction will be caution,” Larsen indicated, noting that the industry has learned hard lessons from previous regional escalations.
Insurance Rates Expected to Surge
The insurance market is also bracing for impact. Larsen expects war risk premiums to increase “manyfold,” reflecting the sudden deterioration in regional stability. More critically, vessels with business connections to U.S. or Israeli interests may find it difficult — or impossible — to secure insurance coverage for voyages into the affected waters. That dynamic alone could significantly constrain traffic flows in and out of the Persian Gulf in the near term.
Strait of Hormuz: Short-Term Disruption Likely
Iran possesses naval capabilities specifically designed to disrupt maritime traffic in and out of the Persian Gulf, including through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
In the short term, Larsen assessed that Iran could coerce commercial shipping into avoiding the conflict area altogether. However, he projected that within days, U.S. air and naval superiority would likely establish sufficient security to allow commercial shipping to resume transits through the Strait and surrounding waters.
The key question for operators will be whether the period of disruption is measured in days — or extends into a more protracted campaign of asymmetric attacks.
Risk in the Red Sea
The conflict’s implications extend beyond the Persian Gulf. Larsen warned that the Houthis, allies of Iran, may intensify attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Such a development would further strain global supply chains. Maritime traffic through the Red Sea has yet to recover to pre-conflict levels following earlier Houthi campaigns. A renewed wave of attacks could prompt additional shipowners to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost to Asia-Europe and transatlantic trades.
“Others will still decide to go through,” Larsen noted, but only after close consultation with insurers and detailed, voyage-specific risk assessments.
U.S. Maritime Warning Zone
In response to the outbreak of hostilities, U.S. authorities have established a maritime warning zone covering the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial vessels have been advised to navigate with caution and avoid the zone if possible. While neutral and merchant shipping remains legally free to transit international waters, U.S. officials have emphasized that dangerous military operations are underway and that the U.S. Navy cannot guarantee the safety of commercial vessels operating within the designated area.
The establishment of such a warning zone underscores the fluid and high-risk nature of the operating environment.
For shipowners, the decision to transit — or avoid — the region hinges on a structured risk assessment process.
Larsen explained that operators evaluate the intent, capability and opportunity of hostile actors to attack, as well as the vulnerability of their crew, vessel, cargo and the environment. Mitigation measures may include enhanced watchkeeping, adjusted routing, increased damage-control readiness and liaison with naval forces operating in the region.
Ultimately, the decision may be to stay away entirely.
“The final decision on risk mitigation includes in some cases a decision to stay away completely,” Larsen said, emphasizing that each company’s risk tolerance varies, shaped by corporate culture and crew acceptance levels.
A Market on Edge
The latest escalation once again places the Persian Gulf — and by extension global energy and commodity flows — at the center of geopolitical risk.
In the immediate term, higher insurance costs, potential rerouting and temporary withdrawal of tonnage from the region are expected to tighten vessel supply and inject further volatility into freight markets.
Whether the disruption proves short-lived or evolves into a sustained maritime security crisis will depend on the scope of Iranian retaliation and the speed with which Western naval forces reassert control of key sea lanes.
For now, the message from BIMCO is clear: heightened caution, rigorous risk assessment and close coordination with insurers and naval authorities will define shipping’s response in the days ahead.
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