U.S. net crude oil imports are forecast to fall by 20% next year to 1.9 million barrels per day, their lowest since 1971, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, pointing to higher U.S. production and lower refinery demand.
The EIA expects the United States to produce 13.52 million bpd in 2025, up from 13.24 million bpd in 2024, it said in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Meanwhile refiners are set to process 16 million bpd of crude oil in 2025, down by 200,000 bpd compared with 2024, the EIA said.
Global oil demand is expected to average around 104.3 million bpd next year, the EIA said, down from its previous forecast of 104.4 million bpd.
Global oil output is now expected to average 104.2 million bpd in 2025, down from the prior forecast of 104.7 million bpd, according to the report.
The EIA now expects spot Brent crude prices to average $73.58 a barrel in 2025, down from its previous forecast of $76.06 per barrel. U.S. WTI spot prices will average $69.12 per barrel, down from its last estimate of $71.60.